205 lbs: Matt “The Hammer” Hamill vs. Jon “Bones”Jones
The main event of the TUF 10 Finale features light heavyweights Matt Hamill vs. Jon Jones. Matt “the Hammer” Hamill is a TUF 3 alum, and an experienced UFC fighter, while Jon Jones is the young prospect that is quickly catching the attention of some of the divisions top fighters.
Matt is battle tested in the octagon, and brings high level wrestling to this fight. With an impressive wrestling pedigree, and ever improving stand up, Hamill is dangerous. Matt first showed signs of solidifying his striking in UFC 92 in his fight against Reece Andy, and shocked the hell out of me at UFC 96,where he landed a nasty head kick on Mark Munoz. However, if Matt is going to win this fight, he will need to stick to his wrestling,and take Jones down again and again. If he can pull off some strong take downs, and impose his will on the ground, he might pull it off. Exciting? Nope. But, we see laying and praying, mixed with some g and p work time after time.
Jon “Bones” Jones is a crowd pleasing fighter who displays flashy and dynamic striking. At only 22 years of age, he is very well rounded, and trains out of the Tri Star camp in Montreal. This gym is well known for producing great fighters, including Georges St. Pierre. Although Jones enjoys standing up, he is very capable on the ground, and has good enough wrestling to avoid Hamills takedowns. With almost a 9 inch reach, Jon will be able to keep Matt at bay, and pick him apart.
Even though both fighters are aggressive and like to move forward, I believe Jones will be able to use the octagon to his advantage, resulting in a tired and frustrated Matt Hamill. We have seen very poor cardio in Matt’s past fights, and i definitely see this as being a huge factor in this one.
I see Jon Jones avoiding the take downs, pressing the action, and using his aggressive striking to pull of the TKO.
Winner: Jon Jones by TKO
265 lbs Roy “Big Country” Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
As we all know, the winner of this one gets the the six figure contract, and all the perks that come with being a UFC fighter. So, you better believe that although it may not be that exciting, these two are gonna bring it.
Roy Nelson brings a lot of experience into this fight. A former IFL Champ, and 17 fight veteran, Roy Nelson has faught some notable guys (Jeff Monson and Andre Arlovski). Roy is not what most people invision when they think of a fighter, but do not be fooled. He is good. He will stand with you. He can take you down. He can use his weight to smother you , and trap you in his now famous “Belly Crucifix”. Whats even more impressive is that this big guy has some gas in his tank. He will fight the entire fight. The problem I see for him in this fight is that Brendan hits really, really hard. The last time Roy fought a very powerful striker, he was demolished. He will have to find a way to get Brendan to the ground, and try to finish it there. With Roy’s ability to use his weight and control stronger more athletic opponents, it is his key to victory. But how will he get Schaub to the mat? He is going to have to punch his way in, stay tight, and pray he does not catch that big right on his chin.
Brendan Schaub is new to the game with only 4 fights under his belt, but has displayed tremendous power, aggressiveness, and athleticism. There is no doubt that he is looking for the big K.O., and is going to use his speed and length to get in and out, while stuffing Roy’s shots. Brendan has a ton of strength, but if this hits the ground, it will not compensate for his lack of experience. Roy has forgotten more than Brendan has learned on the ground.
So, here’s the deal…Brendan is a huge underdog in this one, BUT, I think he is gonna do it. He will keep it standing and finish Nelson.
Winner: Brendan Schuab K.O.
215 lbs Kevin “Kimbo” Ferguson vs. Houston Alexander
FINALLY, THE FIGHT THE WHOLE WORLD HAS BEEN WAITING FOR! REALLY? At the risk of Kimbo hunting me down, and kicking my ass, I will speak my mind. Writing predictions is fun for me. Whether I am right or wrong, I try to give logical, thought out reasons why the fight may go a certain way. More than that, I highlight the fighters attributes to give validity to my pick. Well, here is my prediction. Someone is gonna get knocked out. Who? I do not know. Nor, do I really care. Both guys hit hard. Houston has some leg kicks. Neither one has ground. Done. As far as Houston Alexander goes…he carries the nickname of “The Assasin”, but I refuse to mention it other than right now because that name belongs to my fighter Steve Garcia…Who by the way, is far superior to both of these fighters, yet fights for pennies. Bitter? You’re damn right!
Winner: flip a coin
These picks are courtesy of your brother in MMA,
Robert “The General” Perez
Head Striking and MMA Coach at the 4oz. Fight Club in Houston, TX
Striking Tips from the General
Kimbo Slice: The Internet Legend
Other Kimbo Slice/TUF 10 Posts
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I’m going to have to agree with The General on this one although if Schaub doesn’t keep it in the middle and gets tied up on the fence, “Big Country” is going to through his big mac body into him and take hime down….
Very insightfull, and well thought out predictions. I agree with the analysis, but differ on the winners. I think Matt Hamil has shown unbelievable improvement since the show and has far superior wrestling to lose this fight, Winner, Hamil TKO Rd 2.
Although I am not a Roy Nelson fan, I believe his experience is a huge key factor in this fight. As a vet he has had far too much time to prepare for this fight and knows what to expect. Like most of Big Country’s fights, this fight will not be very exciting, and somehow Big Country will find a way to win via G&P TKO.
As for the Alexander/Slice fight. Slice has a well publicised bad knee, and Alexander knows that. He will stay back and punish that knee with kicks until he is able to take him down and finish him off. Kimbo’s desire will pull him through the first and second rounds, but he will have no answer come the third. Winner, Alexander by Submission Rd 3.
Way to break it down! I agree with “The General” I hope Kimbo can pull it out though!
Awesome videos and most thoughtful analysis I’ve seen today. My picks more from my gut than from expert analysis: Hamill by wrestling/GNP that will go to decision and bore the crap out of us but gotta respect sticking to a gameplan; Schaub just because I don’t think the belly crucifix with love taps to the skull should win a fight; Alexander because we’ve seen Kimbo’s chin fail him before and it will get touched tonight - though I’ve grown a fondness for Kimbo as of late and would love to see some more of him I’m the UFC as I know we will win or lose tonight. And I just want to see Big Baby crank the voices out of meatheads head with an overpowering submission. Thanks again for your vids. Karl
Awesome predictions. You were right on the money about Kimbo vs Alexander and I believe that fight belong to an amateur show not to the UFC.