BJ Penn VS. Diego Sanchez    

The main event of the evening is a Lightweight  Championship bout between BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez.  I am very excited to watch these two go at it!  However, I am not as excited to make my prediction.  I find myself torn as I add up both fighters postive and negative traits.  It seems they just cancel each other out.  My gut is telling me to pick Diego, while my brain insists on Penn.  What’s a boy to do?

BJ “the Prodigy” Penn is arguably the most talented and naturally gifted fighter to ever live.  Hence the nickname.  BJ’s proficiency on the ground is nothing short of remarkable.  His technical knowledge of BJJ coupled w/ a contortionist’s flexibility makes him deadly from any position.  Penn’s transitions are a thing of beauty, and his control from top position makes it almost impossible to escape.  Because of Penn’s incredible ground, his striking is always overlooked.  This is a mistake that will get you knocked out.  BJ has always been an aggressive striker, with a crazy chin.  However, in recent years, he has become much more polished in his technique, and can pick you apart with his boxing.  Outside of BJ’s physical capabilities, he possesses a mental toughness and tenacity that are frightening.  BJ won’t quit.  He will move forward.  He will always try to finish.  He is mean.  He has proven that he will fight anyone at any weight, and give them hell.  A total package right?  The perfect fighter?… Well, almost.  Like so many other athletes with a god given ability to physically excel, BJ Penn has shown tendencies of being lazy.  Don’t get me wrong.  The man trains.  Just not as much as he should.  This was brought to the public’s attention via ( Spike TV) during his preparation for George St. Pierre.  We witnessed BJ hitting the waves, instead of hitting the gym.  I was pretty bummed out, but not surprised.  Like I said, gifted athletes often tend to lack the work ethic that a less gifted one usually has.  The good news is that he has seen the error of his ways, as he has apparently been training like a mad man.  If this is true…this is Bad news for Diego.  As I previously mentioned, BJ won’t quit.  Any poor performance he has put out there is a direct result of a lack of conditioning and an empty gas tank.  So, if the training is there, this will be interesting.

Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez was first introduced to the world as a contestant and winner of TUF 1.  At 170 lbs., he was incredibly strong, fast, and athletic.  It  was very obvious that he had zero stand up, but his take downs, BJJ, and ground attacks were vicious.  Sanchez demonstrated animal-like aggression and always went in for the kill.  Although he had no stand up, the power and effectiveness in his ground and pound should have been an indication of great striking potential.  Over the next few years, Diego would continue to evolve in all aspects of his game.  With each fight, “The Nightmare” showed continuous improvement and shocked a lot of people after he crushed Joe Riggs.  That was the turning point.  That made me a believer.  What Diego did to Joe was no accident.  The power, range, and accuracy of his strikes was scary.  The running/ flying knee that put Riggs on his ass was an extremely difficult technique to land.  The thing that I found amazing is that his new found ability happened over night.  For a moment I thought he had sold his soul to the Devil.  The reality is that he put in the work, and the light bulb just turned on.  The polar opposite of Penn in the work ethic department, Sanchez is a work horse.  He trains in the gym, at home, on the beach, and will probably try to find a way to train in his sleep.  I’m not kidding…the guy is obsessed with his technique and conditioning.  He will be strong, technically sound, and ready to go 5 rounds with ease.  As always, we can expect him to come out crazy.  His fight with Clay Guida was the most exciting first round I have ever seen.  But remember, BJ can come out aggressive as well.  Remember Caol Uno?  Even now with all of his experience and tremendous improvement, can Diego beat Penn?  No.  His jitsu is good, but not near BJ’s.  His take downs are strong, but BJ can stuff them (and if he can’t, it’s ok).  His hands are heavier and quicker than Penn’s.  But BJ will pick his shots through Diego’s flurries.  I think the reason my gut pushed me to go with Sanchez was because of his endless cardio, and complete disregard for his own safety.  That makes him very scary and extremely dangerous.  Yet, my brain had to keep reminding me that he was fighting BJ.  Although Diego’s  move to 155lbs. has proven to be smart (it’s his true weight class), and he will have his day in the sun,  I don’t think it is now.  The title will remain in Penn’s possession.

Winner:  BJ Penn  - Unanimous Decision

Frank Mir VS. Cheick Kongo

I have never cared for Frank Mir’s attitude.  He talks too much.  Yet, no matter how annoying his ego driven personality may be, I cannot deny the fact that he is a talented fighter.  Over the years we have seen Mir rise and fall at least a couple of times.  We most recently saw him have “a golden horseshoe” removed from his ass at UFC 100 by Brock Lesnar.  I think this is what Frank needed to open his eyes a little.  Since his loss, Frank has changed striking trainers (now trains w/ Kru D.), has put on around twenty pounds of lean muscle, and continues to expand his ground arsenal.  We all know that Mir has excellent jitsu, and has proven so on several occasions.  The most memorable being the breaking of Tim Sylvia’s arm, which is still one of the craziest things I have ever seen in UFC.  In addition, the man has good boxing and has out struck top level fighters.  When you add his cerebral approach to fighting, he is pretty complete.  To win this fight, he is going to have to take Kongo down, and do it quickly.  If Frank can do this, it’s over.  His BJJ is far superior to Cheick’s, which is non-existent.  There is not doubt in my mind that he will submit Kongo w/ out much of a problem.

Cheick Kongo could not have a more different personality than his opponent.  Soft spoken, the French kick boxer doesn’t say much, but is a beast in the Octagon.  Cheick has tremendous punching power, and unleashes brutal kicks and knees with every one having K.O. potential.  Kongo is an intimidating physical specimen and has tons of strength.  More over, he is incredibly quick for a man his size.  He is coming off of a tough loss to Cain Velasquez, but proved he has heart, as he did not allow Cain to finish him.  It is evident that Cheick’s biggest hole is his ground.  Although he can deliver devastating blows from inside his opponent’s guard, he can’t do much else, and that’s his problem.  I definitely believe that Kongo can and will out strike Frank, but Mir is good enough to hold his own standing, and look for the take down.  Kongo will only be able to stick and move for so long before Frank cuts off the cage and traps him.  When it hits the ground, Mir will do his thing.

Winner:  Frank Mir  -  Submission.

Clay Guida VS. Kenny Florian

There will be blood.  Mark my words… there will be blood.  “Ken Flo” vs. Guida promises to be an exciting fight that will pit clean, technical striking against wild and highly aggressive brawling.  It will  pit solid, methodical jiu jitsu against lightening quick wrestling.  I am a fan of both Kenny and Clay.   They are hard working and talented competitors that always come to fight.

Kenny Florian has become a completely different fighter than the one we saw on TUF 1.  Although he showed lots of heart and promise, he was still very new to fighting, only having a couple of fights prior to being selected.  Since then, Florian has grown tremendously.  Wisely dropping to 55, Kenny has found his niche.  He combines sharp, technical, yet aggressive mauy thai with high level BJJ.  A Kru D. diciple, and a BJJ black belt, Florian throws some of the nastiest elbows in the business.  Very capable of submitting his opponents, Kenny prefers a more violent approach to finishing his fights.  He likes to open up your flesh with razor sharp knees and elbows, or put you to sleep with his quick hands and powerful kicks.  He truly takes the meaning of  “Muay Thai”  seriously, as he always uses all eight limbs that give the art it’s name.  On the ground he is well versed, very sneaky, and will submit you if you give him the slightest chance.  Florian is looking to rebound from his most recent loss to BJ Penn,  and will do his best to get another title shot.  However, there is a big obstacle that comes in the form of Clay Guida that he needs to over come first.

In the simplest terms Clay “The Carpenter” Guida is a nut.  He is crazy.  His style, while not technically pretty, is highly effective and difficult to handle.  Watch any of Clay’s fights, and this is what you will see… hair flying, fists wailing, and a blurred image of something that resembles a caveman moving at a frantic pace inside the Octagon.  Guida will punch you, take you down, and go absolutely insane in the attempt to finish you off.  I watch in amazement every time he fights.  How does he do it?  Super fast scrambles, non-stop energy and action… he does it like no other.  However, in nine UFC appearances his has lost four.  So, even though his style makes Clay who he is or vice versa, he may need to adjust a few things in order to stay at the top of the food chain.

With someone like Clay, the fight can end in a blink of the eye.  So, it’s difficult to predict who will win, no matter who his opponent may be.  But, I gotta pick someone.  I am going with “Ken Flo”.  I believe he will have the edge standing, and although Clay will take him down, Florian will use his elbows to open up the scar tissue on Guida’s head and face that was left there courtesy of  Diego Sanchez.

Winner:  Kenny Florian - TKO

Jon Fitch VS. Mike Pierce

Rarely given the recognition he deserves,  Jon Fitch is an extremely experienced and dominant fighter.  With a record of 23-3-0, Fitch is a stud in the Welterweight division.  In fact, I think he is the best welterweight in the UFC, aside from the champ, Georges St. Pierre.  While Jon is really good in all areas of fighting, he lacks the ability to finish fights.  Perhaps this is the reason he often falls under the public’s radar.  no matter how good you are, no one wants to see a decision.

Mike Pierce has only fought once in the UFC, but holds a professional MMA record of 9-1, giving him legitimate fight experience.  I honestly don’t know much about Pierce but even if I did, it really wouldn’t matter.  What I do know, is that like Fitch, Pierce usually goes to a decision. And that is where this fight is going.

I give the edge to Jon Fitch due to his well roundedness and the level of competition that he has faced and beaten.

Winner: Jon Fitch - Decision

These picks are courtesy of your brother in MMA,

Robert “The General” Perez
Head Striking and MMA Coach at the 4oz. Fight Club in Houston, TX

Striking Tips from the General

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